article excerpt from Colin Morrison at flashesandflames.com
The onetime Arthur Andersen accountant Douglas (Doug) Emslie
spent 25 years building Tarsus into a top 20 trade show group via a
London IPO, £700mn Charterhouse-backed MBO and, finally, the
£800mn acquisition by Informa. It had been founded by banker-
turned-trade show entrepreneur Neville Buch, for whom Emslie had
formerly worked at Blenheim Exhibitions.
Tarsus became a £180mn-revenue, independent exhibitions
powerhouse with major events including the Dubai Air Show,
Labelexpo, GreenTech, Space Tech Expo, and PainWeek. It
became one of the four largest organisers in the Middle East and a
growing presence in the US and China – but notably, and
deliberately, absent from the UK market. During the pandemic, it
invested at least $100mn in acquisitions – having previously been a
creator of many of its own new shows.
But nothing in Emslie’s CV of longterm growth and stability – or in
the post-pandemic expectation that Charterhouse would eventually
sell-on the company under its CEO to a new pe owner – prepared
us for what happened next.
Informa pre-emptively swooped on Tarsus in 2023. Within two
years, one of the world’s longest-running trade show CEOs had
become the industry’s most valued investor. After a short handover,
he left Informa to develop his Cuil Bay Capital which has invested in
more than 10 information and events businesses in the past 18
months, including the following where he plays an active role:
- Raccoon Media, the seven-year-old specialist consumer
shows organiser, including the UK’s National Running Show.
£12mn revenue. Emslie is Chair and a majority shareholder. - Jacobs Media, the 16-year-old, £20mn-revenue travel B2B
publishing and events company, now targeting Middle East
and exhibitions growth. Deputy Chair and minority shareholder. - Easyfairs, the €230mn-revenue, pan-European trade show
organiser (now two-thirds pe-owned) is believed to be
targeting acquisitions in the US. Director and minority
shareholder. - Life Science Connect, the US-based, pe-owned company
which said his appointment reflects its ambition to enter the
live events sector in 2026. Director. - Events Venture Group, of the US, which has some 35
members who variously choose to make investments (totalling
5-10%) in startups, four so far. Some expect it eventually to
create an investment fund. Director.
In addition, Cuil Bay Capital (named after a historic place in
Emslie’s Scottish west coast homeland) has invested in four early-
stage events companies including: TrailCon (trail running), Evolve
(reverse logistics), Peak Conference (sports tech), and Quantum
World Congress (an EVG investment), some of which, incidentally,
chime with his leisure passion for running marathons and ultra-
marathons around the world.
Broadly speaking, these investments – estimated to total almost
£20mn – are 50% UK-EU, 40% (US) and 10% (Asia). He indicates
that his medium-term objective is to move to above 50% in the US
and grow the Middle East dramatically:
“Those are the regionswhere I see the most opportunity and where momentum and growth
capital are strongest.”
We asked Emslie about the future of trade shows:
How would you summarise the trends?
“The industry is consolidating at the top, driven by strategics like
Informa and by private equity, but also fragmenting at the edges.
Large organisers are becoming ever more global, while
entrepreneurs are carving out space in niche communities. Digital
has settled into a supporting role rather than a replacement, and the
strongest shows are either highly international or deeply embedded
in passion-led communities. Regionally, the US has recovered
strongly from the pandemic, while Germany and China have not.
The market currently booming is the Middle East.”
How significant really is the Middle East?
“The Middle East has become one of the most dynamic growth
regions for events. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are leading the way
with major government-led investments, and I’d expect the market
to double in the next 3–5 years. What makes it distinctive is not just
the scale of capital, but the speed at which new venues, organisers,
and international partnerships are being developed. Unlike in places
like the UK, governments there clearly recognise the economic
impact of events and are hugely supportive of the industry.”
What about Events Venture Group?
“Events Venture Group is a strong signal of how private capital is
engaging with events in a more structured way. It pools members’
resources to back growth-stage organisers, providing not on
finance but also operating expertise. It could become quite
significant if the model proves scalable. I don’t see it yet as a
wholesale shift in event financing, but it’s part of the wider
professionalisation of investment into the sector — and it fits well
with my own strategy of backing entrepreneurs.”
What are the new imperatives for startups?
“What has changed is:
- The need to build a community before you build a show
- The ability (and expectation) to attract capital early
- Buyers are more focused on a return on their time (invested)
- The need to deliver energy and be fun – which is why we are seeing the shift to so-called festivalisation “
“Historically, you could launch with the cash flow from advance
customer receipts. That’s become harder, given tight venue
contracts, higher marketing costs, and staff salaries. What hasn’t
changed are the fundamentals of great events — networking, strong
content, real commercial value, delivering the right buyers – and a
team that deeply understands its market.”
What are your predictions for 5–10 years?
“We’ll see further consolidation among the largest organisers, but
also a vibrant ecosystem of specialist entrepreneurs.
Geographically, the Middle East and Asia will continue to outpace
Europe in growth, and the US will remain the largest and most
dynamic market, regardless of political shifts. Private equity will
remain very active, and we’ll also see more sovereign wealth money
flow into the industry — following the precedent of Informa’s joint
ventures with the Saudi government and, currently, with the Dubai
World Trade Center. “
“The winners will be those who build brands that matter to their
communities – not just sell space – and who can move quickly
without becoming bureaucratic.”
Emslie, who has seemingly already spent a lifetime managing trade
shows, has started his new life as an investor-entrepreneur at a
time of major change which may become yet more dramatic.
Let me explain.
It is easy to get carried away by the excitement of ‘festivalisation’
and for others to doubt whether these new-wave shows really will
create fundamental change in the B2B exhibitions market. But
global research by US event services group Freeman has
highlighted the generational change from older to younger
participants in trade shows. Across the pandemic, the average age
of trade show attendees has fallen from 51 to 45 – the most
dramatic decrease in 30 years.
The shift is said to be largely due to accelerated retirements among
‘baby boomers’ during Covid and the rise of millennials and Gen Z
as the dominant workforce groups. These ‘new’ groups, which
Freeman calls ‘Next Gen Event Goers’ (NGEGs), are aged 20-44
and now represent a much larger share of attendees. They tend to
be more diverse, better educated, and have different values and
expectations compared to older generations. For example, they are
more interested in unique, interactive, and customized event
experiences and value social and environmental responsibility
highly compared to boomers.
By 2030, Freeman projects that NGEGs will comprise 75% of the
event attendee population, presumably changing how events need
to be planned and delivered. This is the tidal change that some
event creators – like Doug Emslie’s EVG board colleagues
Jonathan Weiner and Jay Weintraub – recognised early. But,
arguably, the trend also coincides with a growing fluidity of events.
One2One meeting formats have, arguably, helped to blur the
distinction between exhibitions and conferences, which will further
encourage ‘new’ entrepreneurs and new types of events.
But there’s more.
You didn’t need the comparatively undisrupted pandemic
experience of Dubai to confirm the city as one of the most business-
friendly centres – for exhibition organisers and others.
Informa (not just the world’s largest event organiser but maybe
twice the size of the no. 2) is focused on its JV with the Dubai World
Trade Center, on which much of its senior executive time is
currently engaged. It implies that the UK listed company (which had
13% of its trade show revenue from the Middle East in 2024) will be
multiplying that share. There’s a long way for the Middle East to
grow.
It will reinforce what Emslie (who spent 25 years building the Dubai
Air Show for Tarsus) is saying about the Middle East. He’s also
believed to be involved with the expansion of the ADNEC complex
in Abu Dhabi (owner also of Excel, in London) which is thought
likely to enable the doubling of many UAE events.
It’s obvious why existing and prospective events companies (and
private equity) are chasing Doug Emslie.
A man for the times.